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Mexico and the Sexenio Curse: Presidential Successions and Economic Crises in Modern Mexico (CSIS Significant Issues Series)

Mexico and the Sexenio Curse: Presidential Successions and Economic Crises in Modern Mexico (CSIS Significant Issues Series)

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Описание
Can Mexico effectively avoid a crisis in the year 2000? What factors could cause one, and what is being done to prevent it? Since 1976 Mexico has experienced currency and economic crises at the end of every sexenio--Mexico's six-year presidential term--even though the transitions involved presidents of the same political party. The repetition is too serious to ignore. As President Ernesto Zedillo's final year in office approaches, many are wondering whether another crisis will occur. Zedillo himself promised there would be none, and much of Mexico's economic policy has focused on that objective. Author Jonathan Heath builds a "severity" index" to compare the intensities of past crises and catalog the factors causing each. He then examines whether Zedillo's policies are consistent with elminating those facots and, shoudl there be a crisis, what the probably causes would be. He concludes that even if Zedillo manages to escape the sexenio curse, this may be an except! ion and not an end to the "curse" itlsef until Mexico matures politically and strengthens its institutions.