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Long Term Trends and Business Cycles (International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, 149)

Long Term Trends and Business Cycles (International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, 149)

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‘Understanding business cycle fluctuations in market economies has long been a central concern of economics. The study of long term trends and business cycles and the extent to which they can be usefully separated has absorbed the energies of our best statisticians, econometricians and economists for at least the last 100 years. The readings in these two volumes provide an excellent map to explore a field that continues to expand rapidly. It covers the early largely statistical approaches, through to the Cowles Commission and NBER approaches and on to the real business cycle literature of the last 15 years. An essential reference for any serious student of macroeconomics.’

– Sean Holly, University of Cambridge, UK

The behavior of long term, secular trends and shorter run, business cycle movements in economic data have long been a concern of economists, statisticians and econometricians. The isolation and interpretation of cyclical movements was the basis for early empirical work ineconomics, while the early dynamic models were constructed to reproduce cyclical fluctuations. The first econometric models analyzed the cyclical path of economies, while focusing attention on the processes that generate trends in economic variables has led to the recent revolution in time series econometrics.

Long Term Trends and Business Cycles brings together the key contributions in these various areas and is comprised of 54 papers published from 1923 to 1999. It will be of interest to economistsand econometricians engaged in the analysis of macroeconomic time series.