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Cuba Under Embargo: The Macro Impact

Cuba Under Embargo: The Macro Impact

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America's embargo against Cuba has obviously had a broad and serious impact on the island's economy, but nobody has shown explicitly why it is obvious. Existing commentary only includes broad verbal declarations, while the supposedly obvious economic harm has never been independently quantified. Hard data remain very obscure, but some fragments are available from government and international agencies. These standard economic indicators can only tell part of the story though. Because consistent data across the decades do not exist, a new method is introduced here to assess the embargo's macroeconomic impact. This method analyses 3 key elements of Cuba's economy before and during the embargo: 1) Industrial Structure 2) Trade under the Gravity Theory 3) The UN Human Development Index Cuba has never been as thoroughly compared with its international peers, and the results are surprising. Did Cuba actually fare worse than non-embargoed countries as is commonly presumed? The data show that Cuba was able to grow under many different conditions including the interwar years, the Soviet period, the post-Soviet period, embargo or no embargo. There were setbacks due to the embargo, but there were also compensating factors. How do these add up? There may be plenty of reasons to endorse or denounce the embargo, but until now there has been too little information to justify basing a judgement on the macroeconomic impact. Find out what the data reveal under this new analysis.