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Similar but Different: The Currency Development in the Visegrad Countries

Similar but Different: The Currency Development in the Visegrad Countries

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Описание
This work examines the currency developments in the Visegrad countries (the Czech Republic,Hungary, the Slovak Republic, and Poland). It is shown that despite the fact that these countriesare similar in terms of the macroeconomic indicators, they have different currency developments,namely the long-term strengthening of the Czech and the Slovak korunas and a lack of thisstrengthening in the Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty. I investigate what stands behind thesedifferent exchange rate developments. Several determinants of the exchange rate are studied forthe period of 1999 to 2006, namely Consumer Price Index, interest rates, balance of payments,current account, foreign trade, state budget, and the foreign (external) debt. By a comparativeanalysis, I find that the Czech koruna is influenced positively by all these factors, the Slovakkoruna is also influenced positively, except for CPI and current account. However, the forint andthe zloty are mostly influenced negatively by these determinants. This explains, at least partially,why the Slovak and the Czech koruna show a trend of appreciation, while this trend in lacking inthe zloty and the forint.